Volumes, not quotes, are lifting export receipts, while imports and a single metal limit the cushion.

By Kanisa Magazine · January 2025

Congo is selling more metal than a year ago and getting less for some of it, and January 2025 showed both effects in a single set of tables. Cobalt output in the Banque Centrale du Congo’s provisional 2024 series reached 184,095 tonnes against 140,121 tonnes in 2023, a rise of 31 per cent, while the bank’s cobalt quote stood at US$24,050 a tonne on 24 January, 14 per cent below its level in late March 2024. Copper, the larger earner, was US$9,167 a tonne on the same day, according to the BCC digest of 29 January.

Reserves rose to US$6,261 million. The question for a business reader is which of four forces, price, volume, imports or financing, is carrying that number.

Price: copper up, cobalt stuck

Copper gained 4.3 per cent in January; cobalt did not move because its quote barely refreshes.

Copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 2024 at US$8,789 a tonne and ended the BCC’s January series at US$9,167. It had peaked near US$9,898 at the end of September. Cobalt’s cathode quote is US$24,050 in every reading from 29 November to 24 January, and a price that does not move for eight weeks is a sign of a thin market rather than a stable one. Brent oil was US$77.11 a barrel, after a US$81.54 high on 10 January, and matters mainly to the import bill.

Volume: the real driver of 2024

Output growth, not price, is what lifted export receipts.

Ivanhoe Mines reported on 8 January that Kamoa-Kakula produced a record 437,061 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2024, up 12 per cent, with December alone at 47,058 tonnes. It guides to 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes in 2025, contingent on power availability in the rainy season. A fire on 2 January damaged 36 MW of backup generation and could delay smelter commissioning by up to three months. The BCC’s provisional 2024 copper column shows 2,592,521 tonnes, but December is still blank in the digest, so it cannot be read against 2023’s 2,842,022 tonnes.

Imports: the leak

Mining success pulls in chemicals and freight, and the IMF says that is why reserve cover disappointed.

The IMF’s January country report says the current-account deficit fell from 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2023 as mining exports grew, but that import growth accelerated, especially chemicals used in mining and transport services. That held reserve cover to 9.6 weeks of non-aid imports at end-October, below what the Fund had expected. Copper makes up nearly 80 per cent of goods exports, so the account stays exposed to one metal.

Financing: a cushion arrived on 15 January

The IMF approved US$2.77 billion over 38 months, and the dollars are meant to be banked.

The Fund’s Executive Board approved a US$1,729 million Extended Credit Facility and a US$1,038 million Resilience and Sustainability Facility on 15 January, as the Fund’s own press release records. The staff report expects reserves to reach three months of non-aid imports by the end of 2027 and the current-account deficit to narrow to 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2025. Ivanhoe also noted US$500 million in advance payments from offtake partners, which is private money supporting the same external position.

What it means for exporters and importers

The account is healthier than a year ago, but it is balanced on one metal and one grid.

For exporters, the lesson is to price on volume, not quotes: cobalt tonnes rose while the quote slipped. For importers, reserves of US$6.26 billion and a steady franc make January a good month to lock in dollar supply contracts for reagents, fuel and freight, since those lines are what the IMF says erode cover. The security shock in the east does not touch copper directly, as the mines lie far from North Kivu, but the IMF lists regional conflict among the downside risks to export revenue. Watch the February digests for reserves and import cover, not for headlines. If cover slips below ten weeks while copper holds above US$9,000, the leak is in imports, and the case for pre-buying dollars strengthens. If cover rises, the IMF money and mining prepayments are doing their job and the franc has room to stay firm through the first quarter.