Two metals moved in opposite directions, and ARECOMS answered the weaker one with an export pause.

By Kanisa Magazine · February 2025

Congo’s external account was pulling in two directions in February 2025. Copper, the country’s largest export earner, rose 8 per cent in the first eight weeks of the year, while cobalt, its most volatile metal, fell 12 per cent. On 22 February the mining regulator ARECOMS answered the cobalt slide by suspending cobalt exports for four months.

The Banque Centrale du Congo’s weekly digest of 26 February is the ledger that shows what each metal contributes to the dollars arriving in Kinshasa. It also shows reserves that went from US$6,382 million to US$5,987 million in a single session on 21 February, a drop the digest does not explain.

Two metals, two prices

Copper gained US$708 a tonne and cobalt lost US$2,848 between 31 December and 21 February.

LME copper moved from US$8,789 a tonne on 31 December to US$9,497.50 on 21 February, with a high of US$9,811.15 on 14 February, the digest records. London cobalt cathode went the other way, from US$24,050 a tonne to US$21,202, with a step down on 10 February when it fell from US$23,346 to US$21,229 in one session. Gold rose from US$2,639 to US$2,927 an ounce, and coltan stayed at US$97 a pound throughout.

The BCC’s provisional production figures for 2024 explain why the cobalt price matters so much. Copper output of 3,100,234 tonnes was 9 per cent higher than in 2023, but cobalt reached 198,777 tonnes, up from 140,121. Volume rose 42 per cent while the price fell, so the metal added tonnes and lost value.

Gold shows a third pattern. Output in the BCC table fell from 34,526 kilograms in 2023 to 27,938 in 2024, a drop of 19 per cent, while the price rose 11 per cent in the first eight weeks of 2025. A rising price is cushioning a falling volume.

How a tonne becomes a reserve

Mining receipts arrive as dollars, pass through banks and reach the central bank only if the state buys them.

An exporter at Kolwezi sells at the London price, is paid in dollars into a Congolese bank and keeps most of the proceeds there or pays suppliers with them. The central bank’s reserves rise when the Treasury, whose mining royalties and taxes are paid in dollars, deposits them with the BCC, or when the BCC buys dollars in the market. Reserves therefore follow royalties and tax receipts, not export value directly.

The IMF’s January programme document shows the effect on the account. The current-account deficit peaked at 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2023 and narrowed through 2024, and gross reserves rose by US$1,308 million in the ten months to October. Even so, cover stood at about 9.6 weeks of non-aid imports, thinner than planned because imports of mining chemicals and transport services grew quickly. The digest shows nine weeks in February.

The cobalt decision in the ledger

A four-month export pause trades near-term dollars for a chance at a higher price.

ACP reported that the suspension covers industrial, semi-industrial and artisanal output, with a review after three months. CRU Group described the move as a response to metal prices near US$10 a pound and an expected intermediate-product surplus of roughly 50,000 tonnes this year. CRU said Chinese spot prices rose 8 per cent on the news.

The cost to Congo’s account depends on how long the pause runs. SFA (Oxford) estimated that the ban could in theory cover up to one-third of projected 2025 Congolese output, though producers would more probably stockpile for later export. Copper exports are not covered, so the larger stream of dollars continues.

What it means for the franc and for business

Copper carries the dollar supply while cobalt decides the mood.

The BCC digest points to a working conclusion. With copper near US$9,500 and the franc steady, the dollar supply behind the currency in February was healthy, and the digest’s unexplained reserve dip is the item to watch. If reserves recover in the next two digests the drop was timing. If they do not, the cobalt pause is biting.

Importers and contractors in Lubumbashi and Kolwezi should plan on a stable franc through the review date in late May, but should avoid contracts that assume cobalt-linked customers will pay on the old schedule. Suppliers to cobalt-heavy producers should shorten payment terms until the first review is published.