Copper and cobalt carry the headline; households and non-mining firms are living on a different growth rate.

By Kanisa Magazine · May 2025

Congo’s economy grew about 6.5 per cent in 2024, and almost all of that came from one sector. The IMF put extractive growth at 11.6 per cent and everything else at 3.2 per cent. By May 2025 the central bank’s own tables show the gap carrying forward: headline growth is expected to slow to 4.7 per cent, and with the population rising 3 per cent a year, the average Congolese gains very little.

The pattern is hiding in plain sight. A reader who follows only the copper and cobalt numbers sees a boom. A reader who follows cement, power and flour sees an economy with a very narrow engine.

Two growth rates in one country

The mining sector expanded by double digits while the rest of the economy grew at roughly the pace of the population.

The IMF’s January programme document expects the extractive sector to have grown 11.6 per cent in 2024, down from 19.8 per cent in 2023, with non-extractive output up 3.2 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent. It attributes the slowdown outside mining to construction returning to its historical trend after a strong 2023. Its staff statement of 13 May puts 2024 growth at 6.5 per cent and projects more than 5 per cent for 2025.

The BCC’s digest to 16 May is more cautious. Its table puts real growth at 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 4.7 per cent in 2025, an estimate based on first-quarter production. Per-head growth falls from 3.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent, and GDP per head in current dollars is US$656 in 2024 and US$681 in 2025. The two institutions differ on 2025 by roughly a point, and the IMF’s January projection of 5.4 per cent predates the fall of Goma and Bukavu.

What the physical indicators say

Copper rose 9 per cent and cobalt 42 per cent in 2024, while power and flour went sideways.

The BCC’s production table is the cleanest check. Copper output rose from 2,842,022 tonnes in 2023 to 3,100,234 tonnes in 2024, up 9.1 per cent. Cobalt rose from 140,121 to 198,777 tonnes, up 41.9 per cent. Cement, a proxy for construction, rose 14.3 per cent to 2.63 million tonnes, which is real activity but mostly mine sites and the capital.

Household-facing lines are flat. Electricity output was 13.47 million megawatt-hours in 2024, 0.4 per cent below 2023. Wheat flour output was 215,457 tonnes, down 1.6 per cent. The BCC marks 2024 as provisional, but a set of figures that moves in single digits while copper surges is a clear sign of where demand sits.

Why the mining boom stays in the mine

Mines are capital-intensive, dollar-denominated and heavily import-dependent, so their growth reaches households thinly.

A copper mine employs relatively few people per dollar of output, pays suppliers largely in dollars and buys chemicals and equipment abroad. The IMF notes that imports of chemicals used in mining and transport-related services were the main driver of faster import growth in 2024. The linkage runs mainly through the state: royalties and taxes fund wages and spending, and wages are a third of the Treasury’s outlays.

That route is under strain. On 13 May the IMF added that the eastern war is weighing on the budget through security costs and lost revenue in occupied areas. Treasury data to 25 April show capital spending at only 7.7 per cent of expenditure, against 12.2 per cent for 2024 as a whole. The channel that turns mining income into household income is narrowing at the point where it matters most.

What this means for firms

Customers who sell to mines and customers who sell to households are different markets with different risks.

A firm supplying a Kolwezi mine in dollars sits in an economy growing at 10 per cent. A firm selling flour, beer or phone credit in Kinshasa sits in one growing at about the pace of its customers’ headcount. Treating them as one market produces forecasts that are too hot for the second and too cool for the first.

The decision for operators

Segment revenue by customer type, and stress-test the household side against flat per-head growth.

Operators should split their order books into mine-linked, state-linked and household demand, and set growth assumptions of roughly 10, 3 and 1.6 per cent respectively until the data say otherwise. Suppliers to the Copperbelt should expand capacity there. Consumer businesses should plan on volume from new outlets and population growth, not from rising spending per customer.