Copper and loans carried reserves to $7.5 billion while the cobalt ban turned price into stored inventory.

By Kanisa Magazine · August 2025

Congo’s external account in August 2025 was held up by copper and by a stock of cobalt it could not sell. International reserves stood at $7,530 million on 22 August, 23 per cent above the $6,132 million of 31 December, even though cobalt exports had been barred since 22 February. The cobalt price had risen 58 per cent in that time, but a price only pays when a tonne crosses the border.

That gap between price and volume is the real shape of the commodity economy this month. To read the external position properly, price, volume, imports and financing have to be taken apart, because in 2025 they are all pulling in different directions.

Price: three metals, three directions

Cobalt rose most, copper steadily, oil fell.

The BCC digest of 27 August gives the prices. London cobalt cathode went from $21,171 a tonne on 28 February to $33,466 on 22 August. Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose from $8,789 on 31 December to $9,780, an 11 per cent gain, after touching $9,895 at the end of June. Brent crude went the other way, from $74.42 to $67.22, a 10 per cent fall. For a country that exports metal and imports refined fuel, copper up and oil down is the best combination available.

Volume: cobalt stranded, copper flowing

The ban removed the cobalt volume; the price rise paid only on what was already sold.

Project Blue reported that the regulator ARECOMS extended the suspension by three months on 21 June, to 21 September, citing high stock on the market. CMOC, the largest producer, raised first-half cobalt output 13 per cent to 61,073 tonnes, according to Ecofin, while unable to ship. The BCC’s activity table records first-quarter cobalt output of 41,721 tonnes, against 785,841 tonnes of copper, which the ban does not touch. Copper volume is the part of the account that keeps earning dollars.

The cobalt that is produced but not shipped is a deferred export. It sits in yards as inventory, and when exports resume, whether under a quota or a lifted ban, receipts will arrive in a lump. The account is not weaker for it; it is later.

Imports and financing: the other two parts

Imports grew where mining needs them, and financing filled the rest.

The IMF’s country report records that the current account deficit narrowed to 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2024 from 6.2 per cent in 2023, with imports picking up for mining-related chemicals and for transport and insurance services. Foreign direct investment continued to fund fixed capital and imports. On the financing line, the bank’s dollar purchases, net, reached $760 million over 2024 and roughly $350 million in the first four months of 2025, and the Fund released about $262 million after the first review on 2 July.

The BCC reports reserves of 12 weeks of imports in August; the IMF counted 10.1 weeks of non-aid imports at the end of 2024 and observed that coverage remains below the standard three-month benchmark. The two definitions differ, and a reader should quote whichever one the source uses.

What reserves are really protecting

A reserve built on copper and loans is strong against a shock to cobalt but not to copper.

Reserves of $7.5 billion defend the franc, which has moved 0.4 per cent this year. They also back the government’s ability to pay in dollars. The composition of the inflow matters, because the cobalt that would normally add to reserves is held back, and the copper that replaces it is exposed to a Chinese demand cycle that Kinshasa cannot influence. The August drift down from $7,657 million on 31 July is small, but it came with no shipments to offset it.

The decision for exporters and importers

Plan for a lump of cobalt receipts, and price imports against copper.

Producers holding inventory should plan working capital for a long hold and for a sudden release, and should talk to their banks about financing against stock in Congo rather than waiting for the ban to end. Importers of fuel and chemicals should recognise that cheaper Brent is a tailwind that can reverse, and lock supply terms while the franc is steady. Banks and investors tracking sovereign risk should watch two dates before the decision: ARECOMS’s review on 21 September and the next BCC reserve print. If the ban lifts or a quota arrives, the external account will look better by the amount that has been stored since February.