Prices rose, reserves recovered and exports of the best-performing metal were switched off by decree.

By Kanisa Magazine · May 2025

London cobalt cathode traded at US$24,050 a tonne on the last day of 2024 and US$33,652 on 30 April 2025, a rise of 40 per cent. Over the same months Congo suspended cobalt exports by decree, which means the price gain accrues mostly to someone else. Reading the external account in May means separating four effects that usually arrive tangled together: price, volume, imports and financing.

The numbers come from the Banque Centrale du Congo’s digest for the week to 16 May, the Cobalt Institute’s May report, and an IMF staff statement of 13 May. Together they show reserves up, copper strong and a cobalt policy whose payoff is deferred.

Price: two metals up, one down

Cobalt gained 40 per cent, copper 8 per cent, and Brent lost 16 per cent between December and the end of April.

The BCC series shows LME copper at US$8,789 a tonne at the end of 2024, US$9,377 at the end of April and US$9,501 on 16 May, an 8 per cent gain. Cobalt cathode went from US$24,050 to US$33,652 over four months and sat at US$33,602 in mid-May. Brent fell from US$74.42 to US$62.72 at the end of April before recovering to US$65.15. For a country that sells copper and cobalt and buys fuel, the terms of trade improved on all three lines.

Volume: the ban

Output fell short of last year’s pace, and the suspension means exports of cobalt could not follow the price.

The ARECOMS decision of 22 February suspended cobalt exports for four months, covering industrial, semi-industrial and artisanal producers, with a review after three. The BCC’s provisional figures put cobalt output in the first quarter at 41,721 tonnes, against 198,777 tonnes for all of 2024. Annualised, that is about 16 per cent below last year’s pace. Copper output was 785,841 tonnes in the quarter, against 3.1 million tonnes in 2024.

The Cobalt Institute reports that Congo supplied 76 per cent of the 254,000 tonnes mined worldwide in 2024, and that the market ended the year in structural oversupply with prices at historic lows. It called the ban the first major intervention by the government in the cobalt market and said it produced immediate price support.

The arithmetic of a ban

A 40 per cent price rise on zero exports earns nothing; the gain is banked only when shipments resume.

Cobalt in Congo is largely a by-product of copper. Producers keep mining, store the hydroxide and sell copper for cash. The state’s receipts from cobalt, royalties and export proceeds alike, depend on shipments that the ban has paused. What the price rise delivers meanwhile is a higher mark on stockpiles and a stronger hand when exports restart, which is the intended design. The Cobalt Institute noted that as of April the government had not said what would follow the suspension.

The BCC’s reserve line shows the cushion in the meantime. Reserves were US$6,132 million at the end of 2024 and US$6,866 million on 15 May, an increase of US$734 million. Import cover rose from 9 weeks at the end of February to 11 weeks, in the BCC’s table, so copper receipts and external financing are carrying the account, not cobalt.

Financing: the IMF’s role

A US$261.9 million tranche is in prospect, and the conflict is the reason the budget needs it.

On 13 May an IMF team struck a staff-level deal on the first review under the Extended Credit Facility, which carries US$261.9 million for reserves subject to board approval, tentatively at the end of June. The IMF projects growth above 5 per cent in 2025 and says the eastern conflict is straining public finances. It describes the economy as resilient and the exchange rate as stable since mid-2024.

What buyers and suppliers should do

Plan for a staged restart, hold copper exposure for cash flow, and treat cobalt as a policy asset.

The three-month review point fell on 22 May and the suspension is scheduled to end on 21 June. Buyers should assume a restart will come with conditions, not a return to 2024. Congolese suppliers whose income depends on cobalt shipments should diversify towards copper and services for the Copperbelt, where the cash is flowing now. Traders holding cobalt exposure should price scenarios for an extension, a quota and a full reopening, and size positions so that none of them forces a sale.