KANISA MAGAZINE

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The IMF expects Congo to grow 5.3 per cent in 2025, with extractive output up 8.2 per cent and everything else up 3.6 per cent. The BCC’s own estimate is lower, at 4.7 per cent.

Net reserves reached US$7,607 million on 25 July, up from US$6,132 million in December, with twelve weeks of import cover. Copper and a frozen cobalt market did the work, while oil drifted lower.

Copper output is about 1.4 per cent above 2024 while cement and electricity paces are lower, and capital spending lags the calendar. The BCC’s June 2025 data show an economy at two speeds.

Cobalt cathode rose 39 per cent and copper 10 per cent in the first half of 2025, yet reserves fell from their April peak. The export suspension and slow financing explain the gap.

Extractive output grew 11.6 per cent in 2024 against 3.2 per cent for everything else, and the BCC expects headline growth to slow to 4.7 per cent in 2025 while population grows 3 per cent.

Cobalt cathode rose 40 per cent between December and April and copper 8 per cent by mid-May, while Brent fell. Congo’s reserves gained US$734 million, but a 40 per cent price rise on suspended exports earns nothing.

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Kamoa-Kakula guided to 580,000 tonnes of copper for 2025, but the BCC’s April digest shows a CDF 1,817 billion Treasury deficit and WFP counts 27.7 million in acute hunger. Mining reaches households through narrow channels.

BCC reserves hit US$6,738 million on 25 April 2025 while London cobalt climbed 59 per cent from February, after Congo suspended exports. One support is mine volume; the other is a regulator’s decision under review.

The BCC reports 7.9 per cent growth for 2024, but non-extractive activity rose 3.2 per cent against population growth near 3.3 per cent. Flat electricity and falling water output show where the gap comes from.

BCC data for March 2025 show reserves swinging between US$5.98 billion and US$6.31 billion while London cobalt rose about 26 per cent after the export suspension. Copper and gold cushioned the external account.